11 May 2009

Is Wolverine Down for the Count?

Pretty much, the above picture will only be relevant so many times, and I cannot imagine a better opportunity to milk it than during this unprecedented back-to-back motion picture release time period. Thus, here is another Trek vs Wolverine analysis.

In its second weekend, X-Men Origins: Wolverine dive-bombed 68% to $27 bringing its total take to just under $130 million. This is the steepest second weekend decline for any of the X-Men films with X3 hitting 67% and the first 2 X-Films landing in the more respectable 50ish% drop range. My prediction of $175 total is starting to look pretty reasonable, if not slightly optimistic. These numbers are still decent, though they are indicative of a tiring franchise. Don't worry though until this well runs completely dry there are still mutants aplenty in our future.

Spock's Star Trek movie on the other hand opened to an estimated $73 million. Toss in Thursday previews and Trek has beamed up nearly $77 million thus far. True, this is lower than Wolverine's opening-and while we will have to wait to see how Trek weathers its second weekend-most are expecting the Star Trek reboot to boldly approach $200 million and to most definitely out earn Wolverine. A similar film's dailies to watch are those of Batman Begins which likewise rebooted an ailing franchise and managed staying power with strong fan and critical reception on its way to $205 million in 2005. This is already the 5th biggest total for a Trek film, the highest being Trek 4's (yes, the one with the whales) $110 million.

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